Interview with Richard Aboulafia: The Voice of the Aerospace Industry

For nearly four decades, Richard Aboulafia has been one of the most respected voices in aerospace — a trusted analyst, consultant, and Managing Director at AeroDynamic Advisory, a boutique aerospace and defense consultancy based in Washington, D.C. Known for his sharp insights and candid commentary on both the civil and defense sectors, Aboulafia has advised major OEMs, suppliers, and governments while shaping how the industry understands its own evolution.

In our conversation, we explored his career path, his perspective on the future of aerospace markets, and his advice for the next generation entering this ever-changing field.

From Cold War Beginnings to Industry Leadership

Aboulafia’s journey began in the final days of the Cold War, when he earned his master’s degree in War Studies at King’s College London. “All I’ve done is aerospace,” he said. “I just got ridiculously lucky — my first job involved defense programs, but I quickly pivoted to commercial aviation.”

Since then, he’s spent nearly 40 years studying and advising on global aerospace trends, from fighter jets and satellites to airliners and supply chains. “I’ve been in the business as a consultant and analyst for 38 years,” he said. “Military, commercial, private aircraft — everything related in the supply chain.”

A Changing Industry: Post-Cold War to Post-COVID

When asked how the industry has changed, Aboulafia pointed to cycles of contraction and expansion. “We went through a post-Cold War period where the defense budget was really nowhere,” he recalled. “Now, for the first time in my career, there’s a simultaneous civil and military upturn. Markets are incredibly strong — it’s the supply side that’s the challenge.”

He noted that while commercial aviation has fully recovered from COVID-19, the supply chain remains constrained. “Travel demand and airline revenue are 100%, and beyond,” he said. “But this is the first recovery I’ve seen where aerospace isn’t leading the way. We’re the last in line to hire people, order things, and that makes us more exposed to inflation.”

On Sustainability and Incremental Progress

A self-described environmentalist, Aboulafia offered a realistic view on sustainability in aviation. “It’s no longer a high priority for a lot of people,” he said. “But here’s the good news: because of the razor-thin profit margins in aviation, we’ve had to get 1–2% better every year for the last 70 years. No other industry can claim that.”

For Aboulafia, steady, incremental innovation — more efficient engines, lighter materials, and smarter systems — remains the most reliable path forward.

Startups, VTOLs, and What Works

We discussed the explosion of aerospace startups — from eVTOL air taxis to hybrid-electric aircraft. Aboulafia was frank: “There’s an awful lot of wasted capital,” he said. “But there are some promising ones — the hybrid-electric manufacturers, for instance. I like what JetZero is doing with blended-wing bodies; that market is guaranteed.”

As for eVTOLs, he was more skeptical. “Verticality is an energy suck,” he said. “It just uses a monster amount of power. For humor value, some are now talking about military applications — but helicopters already do that job far better.”

Global Ambitions: China and the New Aerospace Race

Aboulafia also weighed in on China’s growing aviation ambitions. “On the military side, they’ve made enormous strides — hypersonic munitions, advanced targeting, carrier aviation,” he explained. “But the question becomes: what do they do with that capability?”

Commercially, he noted the limitations of China’s new aircraft programs like the COMAC C919: “They’re heavily dependent on Western systems, especially engines. That’s a real vulnerability. But it would be foolish to bet against them, especially given the U.S. pivot away from Asia.”

Lessons Learned and Predictions Missed

Even the industry’s top analysts sometimes miss the mark. Aboulafia admitted, “I didn’t see how strong the business jet market would become, or how the regional jet market would collapse.” He also reflected on the C-Series (now Airbus A220): “I thought they’d run out of money — they did — but I didn’t realize how good the jet was. Now it’s doing great under Airbus.”

His humility underscored a deeper point: aerospace is unpredictable, and the best professionals learn as much from being wrong as they do from being right.

Advice for the Next Generation

When asked for advice to aspiring aerospace professionals, Aboulafia didn’t hesitate. “Whatever you love — that’s what you do,” he said. “Follow your passion. I’ve met people who are obsessed with composite materials, manufacturing systems, or engines. That enthusiasm is everything.”

He also emphasized communication and curiosity. “Talk and listen to people. Read voraciously. No matter how specialized you are, connect your work to the bigger picture — interest rates, global trade, national defense. Don’t neglect the larger world.”

A Career Built on Passion and Perspective

In our final moments, Aboulafia reflected on his career and offered a glimpse into his current life. “We’ve got a small company. Some days I’m with clients all day; other days I’m writing or thinking about markets. I lead a rather relaxed life at this stage,” he said, smiling.

For students dreaming of following in his footsteps — whether in consulting, policy, or engineering — his parting message was simple: “Be the sort of person who would be a good aerospace leader.”